Against this backdrop, the mortgage rate environment has turned volatile. Barclays' own UK mortgage operations have swung between rate cuts and increases in recent weeks. On July 15, the bank cut residential mortgage rates by up to 66 basis points across multiple loan-to-value bands. By August 6, it implemented further reductions of up to 50 basis points on long-term fixed products, with 10-year fixed rates at 60% LTV falling to 5.12%. Yet on July 15, the same bank also raised selected rates by up to 37 basis points as oil prices and swap rates climbed.
The mixed signals reflect broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Barclays' internal forecast now sees the UK bank rate averaging 4.1% in 2026 and 4.3% from 2028 through 2030, up from 3.4% and 3.5% projected six months earlier. UK GDP growth for 2026 was cut to 0.4% from 1.1%, while the unemployment forecast rose to 5.3% from 4.9%.
Other analysts have also revised their FICO views. Royal Bank of Canada lowered its target from $2,400 to $1,525 on July 30 while maintaining an outperform rating. Wells Fargo raised its target from $1,400 to $1,450 with an overweight rating the same day. Needham reaffirmed a $1,650 target and buy rating. Jefferies set a new $1,675 target on August 3. The average analyst target across 13 firms stands at $1,518, implying roughly 46% upside from the $1,041 share price.