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Bernstein Sees 80% Upside for Riot Platforms After $9.1 Billion Anthropic AI Deal

Bernstein analysts estimate that AI colocation now accounts for 84% of Riot Platforms' target enterprise value, with Bitcoin mining reduced to just 11%, accordi…

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Bernstein Sees 80% Upside for Riot Platforms After $9.1 Billion Anthropic AI Deal
Article image: Bernstein Sees 80% Upside for Riot Platforms After $9.1 Billion Anthropic AI Deal

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  • Bernstein analysts estimate that AI colocation now accounts for 84% of Riot Platforms' target enterprise value, with Bitcoin mining reduced to just…
  • Riot announced the agreement alongside its second-quarter results on August 10. The contract covers 191 megawatts of critical IT capacity, with the…
  • The stock surged more than 25% in after-hours trading on Monday, reaching $24.40, as investors repriced the company from a volatile Bitcoin miner to…

Riot's Q2 results underscored the transition. Total revenue rose 14% year-over-year to $174.2 million, but Bitcoin mining revenue fell to $113.7 million — below 65% of the total — while the new Data Center segment contributed $23.2 million. The company reported a net loss of $237.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $69.7 million, driven by a $401.3 million negative fair-value change on Bitcoin holdings, higher depreciation, and a $28 million impairment on equipment reoriented from mining to data center use. The cost to mine one Bitcoin including depreciation reached $90,631, exceeding the $71,667 production value per Bitcoin.

To fund the Rockdale build-out, Riot secured a $573 million interim financing facility from Morgan Stanley while finalizing an investment-grade credit backstop. The company ended the quarter with $548.9 million in cash and 11,380 Bitcoin.

The deal fits a broader pattern: frontier AI labs are locking in compute capacity years ahead of training schedules, and former Bitcoin miners with energized sites and grid interconnections have become a scarce-asset landlord class. Gartner projects worldwide AI-optimized IaaS spending will grow 96% through 2026 to $42 billion, with inference workloads surpassing training spend for the first time.