Bitcoin opened August near $62,563, down from a July high around $66,900. Several analysts are converging on a similar near-term script: a retest of the $60,000 region before a bounce toward $70,000.
Andrey Poroshin, a financial analyst at Bitbanker — an exchange operating in Russia, the UAE, and Kyrgyzstan — argues that excess liquidity must be withdrawn before a sustainable recovery can take hold. In his view, the market will first probe the $60,000–$62,000 band where retail liquidity is concentrated, then climb back to $70,000 later in the month.
The $70,000 level carries structural significance. Poroshin notes it still sits below the base cost of mining bitcoin in the United States, estimated at $73,000–$75,000. By contrast, Russian mining costs are placed at $58,000–$63,000, creating a geographic split in producer economics.
Since late May, bitcoin has traded persistently below U.S. production cost, a condition that historically coincides with miner capitulation and, occasionally, reversal zones.
On-chain and derivatives data reinforce the cautious tone. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $265 million in net outflows on July 31, the largest single-day withdrawal in weeks. Open interest has held in a $48 billion–$50 billion range through July, suggesting traders are maintaining positions rather than exiting, while funding rates and liquidation clusters near $62,000 and $65,000 point to a coiled spring.