Realtor.com senior economist Hannah Jones said the midyear forecast still calls for rates to ease modestly over the second half of 2026, supported by this week’s cooler inflation data. But she conceded the near-term path remains “hostage” to how the Iran situation develops. President Trump’s threat to target Iran’s power plants and bridges unless negotiations resume has only added to the uncertainty.
For prospective homebuyers, the message from industry experts is to focus on what they can control. “The key is not to wait for the perfect rate,” said Jeff DerGurahian, chief investment officer at loanDepot. “For homebuyers, the message remains simple: focus less on waiting for the perfect rate and more on finding a home that fits your budget and long-term plans.”
With the U.S. completing an eighth consecutive night of strikes on Iran and Tehran retaliating with drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait, the conflict shows no sign of de-escalation. The question now is whether mortgage rates will break decisively above the 6.75% wartime peak, and how much further housing demand can erode before the broader economy feels the chill?
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