The options only vest if Ryanair achieves either a €4 billion annual after-tax profit or a 28-day average share price above €42. Both thresholds are far above current performance: Ryanair’s record profit of €2.26 billion in fiscal 2024 is roughly half the required level, while its stock has never reached €42. The options expire in 2032, giving O’Leary seven years to hit the targets. If neither condition is met, the options become worthless.
Industry analysts note that the €4 billion profit target implies a doubling of earnings, which would require sustained low fuel costs, higher passenger yields, and no major disruptions. Ryanair has forecast traffic of 205 million passengers in fiscal 2025, up from 184 million in 2024, but faces headwinds from Boeing’s delivery delays — which have slowed fleet expansion — and rising competition from Wizz Air and other budget carriers.
⚠️ Analyst view, unconfirmed: The €42 share price target is 120% above current levels, and achieving it would require a market cap increase of roughly €10 billion. Some investors question whether such aggressive growth is realistic given the airline industry’s cyclicality.