Beyond ethics, two other disputes continue to hold up the bill. Law enforcement groups have criticized a developer shield provision as a criminal loophole, while a stablecoin-yield question worth an estimated $1.35 billion a year to Coinbase alone remains unresolved. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly wants a vote before August 10, but the Senate has only two remaining floor windows—the weeks of July 20 and July 27—before the August recess.
Prediction markets have slashed the odds of 2026 passage to the low-to-mid 40s, down from 82% in February and 74% a month ago. Galaxy Research cut its estimate to 50%, and Stifel’s chief Washington strategist has written that the bill “probably needs to get through the Senate by the end of July.” Senator Lummis has warned that failure now could push market-structure legislation to 2030 or kill it entirely at the end of the 119th Congress.
What to Watch
The CLARITY Act’s fate now hinges on whether the ethics language can be rewritten to satisfy enough Democrats without losing Republican support. The question is whether a DOJ-only enforcement model, combined with unresolved fights over DeFi and stablecoin yields, can be reshaped in the few working days that remain before the Senate scatters for recess.
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