Analysts at TD Cowen and Benchmark reiterated buy ratings, dismissing "death spiral" concerns. Benchmark's Mark Palmer cited roughly $1 billion in cash reserves for dividend payments and $55 billion in Bitcoin holdings as buffers, while TD Cowen noted STRC's low volatility during Bitcoin drawdowns acts as a capital-structure stabilizer. TD Cowen maintained a $260 price target on MSTR, down from $400 on June 30, alongside a lowered year-end Bitcoin forecast of $100,000 from $140,000.
A new internal metric, BTC Hurdle ARR, set at 10.8% by CFO Andrew Kang, represents the company's effective cost of credit. The reported 4.5% Bitcoin yield year-to-date (roughly 8% annualized) falls short of that hurdle, meaning Net Bitcoin Per Share is not currently outpacing Bitcoin itself on a go-forward basis. Preferred dividends alone consumed $400.7 million in the first half, and STRC's payout rate was pushed to 12%.
The company sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million in early July — its largest sale in years — at average prices of $59,256 and $60,773, well below its $75,476 average acquisition cost, locking in an estimated $55 million realized loss. Management framed the sales as tactical funding for STRC dividends and reserve replenishment, not a retreat from Bitcoin, with proceeds representing less than 0.5% of total holdings.