U.S. equity futures edged higher Monday, with technology shares leading the advance as traders positioned for a week dominated by inflation readings that could reshape Federal Reserve rate expectations.
Nasdaq 100 futures held near 29,840, essentially flat from Friday's close, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.14% to 7,769 and Dow futures fell 0.20% to 54,041, according to pre-market data compiled Sunday evening. The CBOE Volatility Index dipped below 15 to 14.90, and the 10-year Treasury yield eased to roughly 4.66%, a combination that typically supports risk assets even as valuations remain elevated.
The session's tone reflects a market caught between competing forces. Last week's unexpectedly weak July payrolls report — nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 — triggered a sharp repricing of Fed policy odds. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September dropped to 44% from 67% a week earlier, according to futures pricing cited in market updates.
That shift helped fuel a 5.75% four-day surge in the S&P 500 through Tuesday, its strongest such advance since April 2025, lifting the benchmark to its first record close in two months at 7,757.64 on August 7.
Technology and semiconductor stocks powered that rally. The Nasdaq 100 added roughly $3.5 trillion in market capitalization over four sessions, climbing 9.3% cumulatively. Nvidia rose 12% last week alone, trading around $223 ahead of its August 26 earnings report.