Passage odds on Polymarket have fallen to roughly 25% as of July 31, down from a February peak above 80%. Bitcoin was trading near $64,650 on July 30, pinned inside the $60,000–$65,000 range it has occupied for months. JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou warned that declining odds of the bill becoming law this year are a direct headwind for the entire crypto market.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has kept a placeholder for the bill on the pre-recess agenda, but the schedule is crowded with nominations, a continuing resolution, and sanctions votes. Sen. Lummis said leadership still intends to test the bill on the floor, though she could not confirm whether action would begin immediately or early next week. No cloture motion has been filed, and the bill needs at least seven Democratic votes to clear the 60-vote threshold.
Anthony Scaramucci said he expects Trump to approve the revised ethics language, arguing that if the president signs off, few would stand in the way. The White House has not publicly confirmed acceptance. Meanwhile, a bloc of Senate Democrats led by Sens. Richard Blumenthal and Chris Van Hollen has framed the legislation as enabling "cryptocorruption," citing Trump's reported $1.4 billion in crypto-related income for 2025 and $636 million from a memecoin alone.