If the bill fails to clear the Senate before recess, Senator Lummis has warned that market-structure legislation could slip to 2030 or die entirely at the end of the 119th Congress in January 2027. Polymarket bettors now see only a 24% to 48% chance of passage in 2026, down from over 70% earlier.
The calendar is unforgiving. Each of the two cloture sequences required under Senate rules consumes roughly a week of floor time. With only two working weeks left before the recess, the White House meeting may have been the last realistic point at which a presidential compromise could unlock the seven Democratic votes needed.
The question now is whether a president with more than $1.4 billion in annual crypto income can credibly negotiate the ethics language that would govern his own holdings—and whether seven Democrats will accept whatever deal emerges from a room they were not invited into?
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