The immediate pressure point is the July 24 deadline. If the temporary surcharge lapses without a replacement, the tariff wall on Canadian goods could weaken—but the proposed Section 301 case would keep a 10% duty in place for many imports. The question now is whether Carney’s intensified talks can reshape the tariff trajectory before the clock runs out, or if the 50% rate on metals and the threat of broader duties become a permanent feature of North American trade?
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