UBS has projected that the global space economy could reach a total addressable market of $1.3 trillion by 2040, according to a report from the Swiss bank's wealth management arm.
The estimate is one of the most specific long-term forecasts from a major financial institution for a sector that is shifting from government-led exploration to private-sector commercialization. The projection, released by UBS's wealth management division, marks a concrete number on the commercial potential beyond Earth's atmosphere.
While the headline figure is striking, the underlying drivers are already visible. Satellite broadband constellations are expanding internet access to underserved regions. Earth observation data is becoming a critical input for agriculture, insurance, and climate monitoring. Reusable rockets have reduced launch costs, making space more accessible than at any point since the Apollo era.
UBS did not break down the $1.3 trillion figure by sub-segment in the publicly available summary. However, the bank's broader research framework suggests the number captures revenue across satellite services, ground equipment, launch, manufacturing, and emerging activities such as in-orbit servicing and space tourism.
The 2040 timeline implies a compound annual growth rate that would require sustained investment, technological breakthroughs, and regulatory frameworks that do not yet exist. For context, the Space Foundation estimated the global space economy at roughly $570 billion in 2023, though methodologies differ. The 2040 timeline gives the projection a generational horizon.