The Autumn Budget adds another layer of uncertainty. Business confidence has dipped ahead of the fiscal event, with a net 3% of firms reporting decreased turnover in August. The Chancellor may gain some fiscal headroom from stronger-than-expected tax receipts, but the policy response to the Budget could either reinforce or undermine the current momentum.
For now, the UK economy has avoided the summer contraction that most expected. The question is whether the services sector can sustain its lead without the AI-driven boost that powered July, or whether the delayed impact of tighter financial conditions and fiscal uncertainty finally catches up in the months ahead.
Sources: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5 · Source 6
