China’s crude imports collapsed to a near‑10‑year low in June, removing the single largest source of physical demand from a market already wrestling with the closure of two critical maritime chokepoints. The question now is whether Beijing’s vast strategic reserves and its ability to switch fuels can keep prices from breaking higher—or whether the world’s top importer is about to surprise markets again.
The numbers are stark. China’s June crude imports crashed to 7.12 million barrels per day, a 41% year‑on‑year drop, as refiners slashed runs to 12.47 million bpd in response to the Iran‑linked supply shock that has choked flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait. Despite the plunge, inventory draws stayed moderate at roughly 940,000 bpd, and China still net‑added crude stocks in the first half of the year, helped by unofficial limits on refined‑product exports designed to protect domestic fuel supply.