The US military still struck Iran for a 13th consecutive night, hitting command centers, drone storage, and maritime capabilities, but Trump’s decision to pause a threatened “massive attack” injected a note of diplomatic possibility. Iran, however, reportedly rejected a ceasefire proposal delivered through Iraq’s prime minister, insisting the Strait of Hormuz issue must be resolved.
The refining sector has been a clear beneficiary of the turmoil. The main US refining margin, measured by the 3-2-1 crack spread, reached a record above $70 per barrel, nearly triple its January level. Independent refiners have surged: Marathon Petroleum shares nearly doubled in 2026, Valero also nearly doubled, and Phillips 66 gained 66%. The broader energy sector leads the S&P 500 with a 29% year-to-date gain.
Yet the physical oil market is sending mixed signals. US commercial crude inventories rose by 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels, though they remain about 6% below the five-year seasonal average. Analysts at Commerzbank noted that inventories have been lasting longer than expected, and BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, trimmed its Dated Brent forecast amid bearish market sentiment. Rapidan Energy Group, however, now expects Brent to hover near $100 through end-2026, up from an earlier $85 estimate, and warns prices could spike above $120 if the conflict widens.