The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday lifted its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July, citing strong AI infrastructure investment that has so far offset higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict. The World Economic Outlook, released in Bangkok during the IMF–World Bank annual meetings, also projects 3.4% growth in 2027, though that figure assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens by March and shipping normalizes by October 2027.
Beneath the headline upgrade, the Fund sketched two downside scenarios that matter for risk assets. A sharp correction in AI valuations — the IMF flagged $1.4 trillion of future commitments, $650 billion of debt and $300 billion of transactions between hyperscalers and weaker AI firms — could cut global output by 1.1% by 2028, with U.S. output falling 1.8%. A prolonged war keeping oil above $130 through the first quarter of 2027 would shave half a percentage point off 2027 growth and push inflation to 5.2%.
Global public debt is on track to reach 100% of world GDP by 2029, a level the IMF says will force difficult fiscal consolidation, especially in low-income countries already strained by energy costs. Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro stressed that central banks must keep policy restrictive to anchor inflation expectations, even as commodity volatility persists.