Those macro currents are already visible in bond markets. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 5.35% in early October, its highest since 2002, while the 10-year real yield climbed to 2.87%, a level last seen in November 2008. In the last tightening cycle, Bitcoin fell 58% as real yields surged 2.27 percentage points. This time, a single 25-basis-point hike in September and a 0.67-point rise in real yields from late June coincided with a 43% Bitcoin rally from $58,586 to $83,684, before the price slipped back below $82,000 as yields held elevated.
The difference, analysts note, is that the 2026 cycle began after a $19 billion leveraged flush in October 2025 and a 53% drawdown that cleared much of the fragile leverage. Still, the opportunity cost of holding a zero-yield asset rises with every basis point in real rates, and the IMF’s warning that "calm financial markets may partly reflect AI-related exuberance" suggests the correlation between tech equities and crypto could tighten if the AI leg wobbles.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization stood at $1.678 trillion against a total crypto market of $2.835 trillion, meaning the $1.4 trillion of AI commitments flagged by the IMF equals roughly 83% of Bitcoin’s entire value. Whether the debt trajectory and bond yields ultimately drive investors toward Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value or push them further into Treasuries remains the open question.