Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects this tug-of-war. It had briefly reclaimed $65,000 on Monday as crude fell and risk appetite improved, only to reverse sharply as the Asian sell-off and geopolitical shock hit. The cryptocurrency remains inside its recent $60,000–$66,000 range, with technical momentum softening. A sustained close above the 200-day moving average near $72,000 is needed to neutralise medium-term downside, while a break below $62,000 could open the door to a test of $60,000.
The IRGC strike demonstrates that the conflict’s trajectory is far from linear. Even as diplomatic channels remain open, the risk of sudden escalation keeps both oil and bitcoin on edge. For investors, the key question is whether bitcoin can absorb a renewed geopolitical shock while already contending with hawkish Fed expectations and fragile risk appetite, or whether the oil surge will prove to be the catalyst that breaks its recent support.
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