By mid-2026, the numbers tell a stark story. According to historical data, nearly 85% of the Russian card market is now controlled by Mir, the national payment system. The remaining share held by Visa and Mastercard continues to erode as their cards approach expiration and are replaced by Mir-branded alternatives. Dubynin’s characterization of the foreign cards as “useless plastic” reflects not just a marketing jab but a functional reality: without the NSPK, those cards would not work at all inside Russia.
The NSPK’s dominance is set to deepen further. Historical records show that the system plans to reduce interchange fees on Visa and Mastercard transactions in stages—to 1% in 2027 and to 0% in 2028. This fee compression would remove any remaining economic incentive for banks to maintain foreign-branded card programs, effectively accelerating the full transition to Mir. For investors, the trajectory suggests that Visa and Mastercard’s Russian revenue streams, once significant, are now permanently impaired.
The implications extend beyond Russia’s borders. The fragmentation of global payment systems into regional and national alternatives is a trend that could reshape the competitive dynamics for card networks. While Visa and Mastercard remain dominant in most markets, the Russian case demonstrates how geopolitical shocks can rapidly dismantle their position. The NSPK’s evolution from a sanctions-era contingency to a near-monopoly processor illustrates the potential for state-backed systems to displace global incumbents when political and regulatory forces align.