Iran's foreign ministry contradicted the U.S. account on Monday, stating there were no negotiations with the United States and that its talks were with Oman over a temporary safe route through the strait. Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said reaching an arrangement with Oman was not sufficient to reopen Hormuz while U.S. "aggression" continues. Iranian media also denied Tehran had requested a halt to strikes.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the critical pressure point. Roughly 20% of global seaborne crude and liquefied natural gas normally transits the chokepoint, and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has forced at least 35 ships to turn back, according to Gulf News. The blockade and the broader conflict, which began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, had underpinned a risk premium that traders now see unwinding.
The Canadian dollar illustrated the spillover. USD/CAD held near 1.4030, up less than 0.10% on the day and stuck inside Friday's range, as falling crude offset a softer greenback. For a petro-linked currency, the 4% drop in the underlying commodity was a headwind the broader dollar weakness could only partly absorb.
Trump emphasized the pause is conditional and that the military option remains active should diplomacy stall. No binding nuclear agreement has been signed or ratified. The June memorandum of understanding gave the sides 60 days to reach a nuclear deal; fewer than 30 days remain in that window. The market has priced de-escalation; the negotiations that would justify it have not yet produced a settlement.