The market is now trading on the threat of disruption receding, not on any confirmed change to physical barrels in the water. The durability of the pause remains the unresolved variable. If diplomacy gains traction, the conflict premium could continue to drain, shifting focus back to demand fundamentals and central bank policy. If the pause breaks, the premium can reload as fast as it came off. The question now is whether a conditional halt built on reciprocal restraint can survive the next provocation from any of the multiple armed actors still active across the region?
Sources: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5 · Source 6
