The sticking point is ethics. President Trump’s July 1 financial disclosure showed roughly $1.4 billion in crypto-related income for 2025, hardening Democratic demands for conflict-of-interest provisions. Gallego has called the GOP’s ethics language “very weak.” A White House meeting on July 16 between Trump and Republican senators, including Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, failed to produce a revised text. Journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the updated bill remained unavailable after the meeting, and industry leaders now expect the text next week.
The calendar is unforgiving. The Senate has two remaining floor windows before the August 7 recess: the weeks of July 20 and July 27. Majority Leader John Thune had signaled the week of July 13 for the National Defense Authorization Act, further compressing the schedule. Senator Lummis has warned that missing these windows could push market-structure legislation to 2030 or kill it entirely when the 119th Congress ends in January 2027.
Prediction markets reflect the pessimism. Polymarket bettors now peg the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 between 24% and 48%, down from over 70% earlier. Galaxy Research has cut its internal estimate to roughly 50%, citing calendar constraints. Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at Stifel, wrote that the bill “probably needs to get through the Senate by the end of July.”