Goldman Sachs had flagged volume risk ahead of the report, forecasting a 1% decline versus consensus for flat volumes, citing a shrinking beverage market in Finland and headwinds in the Netherlands. Italy and France were seen as supportive. Despite the volume pressure, the bank expected strong EBIT growth and additional share buybacks of DKK 200 million.
Royal Unibrew reiterated its full-year 2026 guidance, targeting organic EBIT growth of 6–10%, corresponding to EBIT of DKK 2.33–2.43 billion. The company also launched a new DKK 300 million share buyback program. CEO Lars Jensen said the first half delivered stable performance across all markets with market-share gains in key categories, despite rising inflationary pressure across several cost categories.
The report contained no new details on the lost PepsiCo license, which will transfer to Carlsberg from the start of 2029. That contract accounted for roughly 13% of revenue in Q1 and entails DKK 300 million in transition costs. The share price has recovered about 10% since the April announcement but remains down roughly 19% year-to-date.
With Q2 organic EBIT growth coming in well below expectations and the PepsiCo transition still ahead, the key question is whether H2 margin expansion can offset volume softness in core Nordic markets and deliver the full-year target.
Sources: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5 · Source 6
