Eurasia Group's Alex Kolyandr describes an economy where "if you are lucky and you're employed by a tank production company, then everything's good. Otherwise, you are probably facing problems". Ukraine's long-range drone strikes on oil refineries and logistics hubs have cut refining throughput by roughly 20% year-on-year in June, contributing to fuel shortages and inflationary pressure.
Forecasters have cut the 2026 GDP growth outlook to 0.6% from a previous 0.8%, while year-end inflation is now seen at 5.7%, up from 5.5%. The central bank's key rate stands at 14.25% after a modest cut to 14% in July, with analysts expecting a further reduction to 13% in the fourth quarter.
Sberbank's macroeconomic center projects the ruble weakening to 88.2 per dollar by year-end 2026 and toward 97 by end-2027, citing falling Urals prices, budget-rule currency purchases, and export constraints. The ruble traded around 84.35 per dollar in mid-August, a multi-month low.
A new mobilization would compound labor shortages, wage pressures, and fiscal strain, potentially accelerating the very inflation and growth deceleration the central bank is trying to manage. The 2022 draft removed a significant slice of the skilled workforce; a repeat could deepen the demographic and productivity drag.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin's reliance on military spending, higher taxes, and subsidized lending to sustain activity masks a broadening slowdown in the civilian economy.