The pressure on gasoline is compounded by structural tightness in fuel markets. U.S. refineries are prioritizing jet fuel and diesel production, leaving less capacity for gasoline, while Ukrainian drone attacks have systematically destroyed Russian refining capacity. GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, predicted the national average would hit $4 within 7 to 10 days and warned that diesel could reach $5 per gallon again by the end of the week.
Yet the price trajectory is not a one-way bet. Oil prices pared some gains on Monday after Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said negotiations with the U.S. could be pursued based on national interests, and intermediaries continued to exchange messages. Brent retreated from an intraday high above $91 to trade around $88.47 later in the session, while WTI dipped 0.2% to $82.36. The mixed close reflects a market caught between the reality of disrupted physical supply and the possibility that diplomatic off-ramps still exist.