U.S. international trade in goods and services could surpass $6 trillion in 2026 for the first time, but only if the second half of the year delivers roughly $3.02 trillion — about 50.28% of the annual total — according to a Forbes analysis of Census and BEA data.
The math is straightforward. Through June, the United States recorded $314.7 billion in exports and $388.0 billion in imports, a monthly turnover of just over $700 billion. Year-to-date exports have risen 11.7% versus the same period in 2025, while imports have barely moved, up just 0.4%. That combination narrowed the goods-and-services deficit by $189.3 billion, or 33.8%, in the first half.
Yet the deficit remains large. June's shortfall was $73.3 billion, down from $77.6 billion in May but still running at an annualized pace near $880 billion. The 12-month trailing deficit through May stood at $728 billion, with a goods deficit of $1.06 trillion partially offset by a $336 billion services surplus.
Trade flows have been reshaped by a volatile tariff environment. The Supreme Court's February ruling striking down IEEPA-based tariffs triggered a scramble: the administration pivoted to Section 122 duties, which expired July 24, and then to Section 301 levies. The Congressional Budget Office now estimates customs collections will fall $250 billion short of its February forecast — a 60% drop — pushing the fiscal 2026 deficit to $2.1 trillion, or roughly 6.6% of GDP.