Importers front-loaded shipments ahead of the July 24 transition. U.S. ports handled 2.51 million TEUs in July, the fourth-highest July on record, with China supplying 873,129 TEUs โ its highest monthly volume in a year. But the surge is fading. The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates project July volumes at 2.21 million TEUs and August at 2.22 million, signaling a return to normal seasonal patterns.
Underneath the headline numbers, the geography of trade is shifting. June imports from Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam rose sharply year-over-year โ up 23.5%, 25.6%, and 41.0% respectively โ while exports to Mexico, Japan, and Switzerland showed strong gains. China remains the single largest source of containerized goods, but its share has drifted lower over years of tariff pressure.
Consumer resilience and an AI-driven investment cycle have kept demand for imported capital goods โ especially servers and data-center equipment โ elevated. Computer imports now exceed the value of auto or oil imports, helping propel the goods deficit above $100 billion for two consecutive months.
The second-half outlook hinges on whether export momentum can persist without the tailwind of tariff-driven front-loading. S&P Global forecasts 2.1% real GDP growth for 2026, but flags Middle East conflict, equity-market volatility, and data revisions as risks. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold with core PCE inflation projected at 3.2% year-over-year in Q4.