The 2026 FIFA World Cup generated $20 billion in prediction market volume from January through the tournament's end, according to blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis. The figure encompasses activity across nearly 400,000 wallets, with $5.7 billion traded during the five-week tournament itself — representing 63% of all prediction market volume during that period.
Daily volumes traced a steep adoption curve. Activity began around $50 million per day in January, surpassed $100 million before kickoff, and frequently hit $250 million once matches began on June 11. The final, where Spain defeated Argentina 1-0, pushed single-day volume above $300 million.
Markets ranged from tournament winners to player-specific props. One contract asking whether Cristiano Ronaldo would cry when Portugal was eliminated drew $49 million in volume; the "yes" side resolved after Portugal's loss to Spain. A trader identified as gud.hl lost $5.2 million betting on Argentina to win the tournament.
Two platforms dominated. Kalshi recorded $13.6 billion in World Cup-related trades through July 20, roughly 2.5 times Polymarket's $5.4 billion. Kalshi led per-match markets, clearing $315–333 million per knockout game versus $38–52 million on Polymarket. Polymarket's outright winner market closed at a record $4.23 billion, eclipsing its 2024 U.S. election contract.