User behavior was highly stratified. On Polymarket, 465,558 unique wallets participated, but over half traded only one event and contributed just 8% of volume. The top 4.5% of wallets — those trading 21 or more events — accounted for 47% of dollar volume. Average trade size was $171 on Kalshi versus $780 on Polymarket; high-value trades ($10,000+) averaged $31,000 on Kalshi and $50,000 on Polymarket.
Chainalysis found 55% of bettors finished in profit, and 79% of those profitable traders had prior prediction market experience. Illicit exposure was minimal: less than 1% of wallets showed ties to sanctioned sources, totaling $5.4 million, primarily linked to Huobi/HTX.
The World Cup volume dwarfed the previous prediction market record of $3.6 billion set during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Super Bowl 60 and March Madness each exceeded $1 billion. Traditional U.S. sportsbooks handled $3–4 billion in June and July combined — less than a quarter of the on-chain total.
What to Watch
Regulatory pressure is mounting. Nine European regulators issued a joint declaration targeting unlicensed prediction markets during the tournament. New York sued Kalshi, alleging it operates an unlicensed gambling platform. A federal judge in Minnesota blocked a state ban on prediction markets, ruling many event contracts qualify as swaps under CFTC jurisdiction. Gibraltar launched the world's first dedicated prediction market regulatory regime in July.