Bitcoin pressed toward $65,000 on Thursday, July 30, 2026, as softer economic data eased fears of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The move came against an unusual backdrop: yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries have risen so sharply that they now out-yield the crypto carry trade for only the second time on record, a dynamic that is reshaping the opportunity cost of holding digital assets.
The Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, a decision that was widely expected. Yet the vote was far from unanimous. Three policymakers — Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Lorie Logan of Dallas — dissented in favor of an immediate quarter-point increase. The 9-3 split underscored growing internal pressure to confront inflation that has remained above the central bank’s 2% target for five years.
Despite the hawkish dissent, markets interpreted Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference as less aggressive than feared. The implied probability of a September rate hike fell to around 65%, down from roughly 76% a day earlier. Warsh’s remarks suggested that rising market rates were already doing some of the Fed’s tightening work, a message that left traders uncertain about the near-term policy path.