The result is a market that is moving higher on thin participation. Bitcoin spot trading volume has collapsed to its lowest levels in years. K33 Research reported that average daily spot volume in July was just $2.2 billion, the weakest since November 2023. Glassnode data showed that spot volume measured in coins has fallen to its lowest since 2019. On major exchanges, turnover has plummeted — Binance handled just over $35 billion in July, down from $246 billion in November 2024. Futures open interest on the CME remains near multi-year lows, while perpetual futures open interest has stalled around 300,000 BTC.
On-chain data paints a similarly cautious picture. Long-term holders have continued to accumulate, but at a noticeably slower pace. Net additions by long-term holders dropped from around 40,000 BTC in late May to about 14,000 BTC in late July. The cohort has also been booking some profits, a pattern that suggests conviction rather than distribution, but one that does little to inject fresh demand into the market.