The conflict is not confined to the waterway. U.S. strikes have targeted Iranian coastal surveillance and air defense facilities, maritime assets, and missile and drone storage sites. Iran, in turn, has launched ballistic missiles and drones at U.S. allies in the region, with Kuwait and Bahrain reporting fresh attacks. A vessel was reported on fire off the coast of Oman, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed two oil tankers were immobilized while attempting to transit a southern route through the strait. The IRGC warned that the passage would remain unsafe as long as U.S. “aggression” continued.
Beyond energy markets, the shockwaves are being felt across asset classes. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) climbed for a fifth straight day, reaching 18.96 as U.S. equity futures fell sharply. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slipped into technical bear market territory, with Nvidia, TSMC, and AMD all declining. Bitcoin, which had briefly rebounded above $65,000 on softer U.S. inflation data, saw its upside limited by rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty. One analyst noted that if oil prices rise further, the recently weakened outlook for Federal Reserve rate hikes could strengthen again, creating a headwind for risk assets.