The risks of a prolonged disruption are stark. If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted for 30 days, the consequences could extend far beyond the Gulf, raising import bills, fuelling inflation, and complicating monetary policy for energy-importing nations. Floating storage of oil and LNG is already rising as loaded vessels remain trapped within the Gulf. President Trump has set a deadline of 8:00 p.m. ET Monday for Iran to return to talks, warning that the U.S. will otherwise begin targeting “every bridge” and power plant.
What to Watch
The question now is whether the Strait of Hormuz—and by extension global energy markets—will face a sustained closure, or if diplomatic off-ramps can be found before the economic damage compounds further?
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